Clinton Vs Trump: who will win on social media?

8 November 2016 13:41 by Danny van Zon in Trending, Data Research

Clinton Vs Trump: who will win on social media?

An estimated two hundred million Americans decide today who is going to be the 45th president of the United States. Election day is an important end of a long and crazy campaign battle between Clinton and Trump. The whole world is watching and talking about it on social media, but how many posts are there and what’s the content of those messages?

In 2008, Barack Obama’s use of social media was one of the strengths of his campaign when he defeated John McCain. Now, in 2016, social media are even more important as a platform for political campaigns.

Strategy
In the past month, Trump posted 908 tweets, Hillary tweeted more: 965 posts. When we look at these messages, there are significant differences in sentiment, use of words and also the amount of influence both candidates have on social media.

Sentiment

The score of sentiment in Coosto indicates which posts are positive, negative or neutral and it gives you a clear view of the tone of voice of messages. In the case of Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, the sentiment score shows big differences. 8% of Hillary’s messages are positive, while 30% of Donald’s tweets are positive, so Trump has a different strategy: he uses more positive language than his opponent Clinton.  On Monday, New York Times announced that Trump ‘s campaign team took over his twitter account. It’s unclear when this happened, but it’s remarkable that after the last television debate on the October 10th, there are no significant summits of negative messages. This shift to positive sentiment might be caused by his campaign team. Trump’s recent tweets are remarkably more positive than before.

Use of words

When we look at the use of words we can analyse the message that the candidates want to send. Hillary and Donald are both emphasizing that time is ticking for voters. With words as ‘early voting location’ , ‘days’ and ‘ hurry’ they put pressure on their followers to vote in time. It’s also remarkable that Clinton uses Trump’s name equally as hers.

Influence rating
Coosto calculates an influence rating for every author. This rating shows the amount of influence: In what extend does an author encourage other people to talk about the subject? Trump’s influence rating is currently 88, Clinton’s is 95,3: she stimulates the online dialogue more than her opponent. The  comparison with other people like soccer player Cristiano Ronaldo (an influence rating of 89.5), Dutch prime-minister Rutte (86.7) and Barack Obama, the current president of the United States (97.9) shows that Hillary’s score is relatively high.

Who will win?
These are exciting and nerve-racking times for Trump and Clinton. Who will be chosen by the American people? Their approach of social media is very different, so will the positive posts of Trump determine his victory or will the influence rating of Clinton make her the first female president? We will know soon…